Vietnam is considering relaxing its two-child policy due to a low birth rate, one of the lowest in Southeast Asia.

The Ministry of Health has proposed allowing couples to decide the number and timing of their children, as well as addressing regional disparities in birth rates.

Children play at a public park in HCM City’s Phu Nhuan district.

Currently, Vietnam’s birth rate is below the regional average of 2.0 children per woman, and is higher only than Brunei (1.8), Malaysia (1.6), Thailand (1.47), and Singapore (1.0).

Like other nations in Asia, Vietnam has begun to grapple with escalating concerns regarding its demographic challenges.

Experts have attributed its low birth rate to multiple factors, including work-related pressures, financial constraints, a focus on career advancement and evolving social perceptions.

From 1999 to 2022, its birth rate remained stable around the replacement level of 2.1, according to a report by the Ministry of Health.

However, in the past two years, this rate has seen a rapid decline, dropping from 1.96 children per woman in 2023, to 1.91 children per woman in 2024, the lowest level in the nation’s history.

The decline represents the third consecutive year in which Vietnam’s birth rate has fallen below the replacement level, according to the report.

The number of localities with birth rates below the replacement level has risen from 22 in 2019 to 32 in 2024, mainly in the southeast and Mekong Delta regions.

In 2024, urban areas reported a birth rate of 1.67 children per woman, while rural regions recorded a rate of 2.08, both below the replacement threshold.

In addition, while the gender ratio at birth has improved, it remains unbalanced, with 112 boys born for every 100 girls.

Birth rates vary significantly across regions. The southeast and Mekong Delta have the lowest rates, at 1.48 and 1.62 children per woman, respectively.

In contrast, the northeast and northern mountainous regions have higher rates, at 2.34 and 2.24 children per woman, respectively, exceeding the replacement level.

Ho Chi Minh City, the nation’s largest city, recorded the lowest rate in the country at 1.39, while Ha Giang province in northern Vietnam has the highest at 2.69.

Vietnam’s birth rate is projected to continue its decline, marking the end of its golden population period by 2039 and leading to negative growth by 2054, experts said.

They have warned of potential labour shortages and socio-economic challenges due to an ageing population.

Nguyen Thi Lien Huong, deputy minister of Health, emphasised the urgent need to encourage larger families such as easing penalties for a third child and considering financial support for families.

The government is also addressing reproductive healthcare and services for the elderly.

Efforts are being made to raise public awareness on family planning and gender equality, while promoting the two-child model and integrating population goals into local plans.

Vietnam’s challenges are not unique; other countries such as China, the Republic of Korea (RoK), and Japan face similar issues.

In response, 55 governments around the world have implemented policies to boost birth rates, including improved parental leave and financial incentives.

The RoK has significantly increased funding for pro-birth programmes, while Hungary offers lifetime tax exemptions for women with four or more children.

Experts recommended Vietnam develop practical measures, such as reducing child-rearing costs and providing housing assistance, to encourage higher birth rates.