Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong revealed the figure at a population conference in Hanoi on Friday, noting that this is the third consecutive year the birthrate has remained below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Newborn babies at Hung Vuong Hospital, Ho Chi Minh City.

The rate has been on a steady decline, dropping from 2.11 in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and now 1.91 in 2024.

Despite expectations for an increase in births during the Year of the Dragon, the record low reflects changing attitudes, with families moving away from traditional beliefs. It also highlights the ineffectiveness of current pro-natalist policies in reversing the downward trend.

Urban areas with higher socioeconomic development continue to experience the lowest birthrates, averaging 1.7–1.8 children per woman over the past two decades.

In 2024, the urban rate fell further to 1.67, while rural areas recorded a higher rate of 2.08. Regions with fewer economic opportunities, such as the northern midlands and mountains (2.34 children per woman) and the Central Highlands (2.24), reported significantly higher birthrates.

In contrast, the southeast, which includes Ho Chi Minh City, recorded the country’s lowest rate at 1.48 children per woman.

Deputy Director of the ministry's Population Department Pham Vu Hoang warned that Vietnam’s population could begin to shrink after 2054 if the low fertility rate persists.

Projections indicate a potential annual population decline of 0.04% between 2054 and 2059 and 0.18% between 2064 and 2069, equating to an average loss of 200,000 people per year.

By contrast, maintaining the replacement-level birthrate would allow for slight annual growth of 0.17%, adding approximately 200,000 people per year.

Experts warn that low fertility can have severe consequences, as demonstrated by Japan, the world's most rapidly aging society. An aging population leads to increased social, healthcare, and welfare costs, labor shortages, and reduced socioeconomic resources.

To address the issue, Vietnam’s population strategy aims to stabilize the birthrate at 2.1 children per woman and reach a target population of 104 million by 2030.

The Ministry of Health’s draft Population Law proposes measures such as abolishing penalties for having a third child, encouraging women to marry before the age of 30 and have two children by age 35, and providing financial incentives to promote childbirth.

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