According to UOB experts, Vietnam ended 2024 on a strong note, with real GDP growth surging to 7.55% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This figure was well above median consensus view of 6.7% and the bank's forecast of 5.2%.

The Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 to 7%.

With the surprisingly strong performances in the past three quarters, Vietnam’s economy expanded 7.09% in 2024 from 5.1% in 2023, ahead of consensus call of 6.7% and official target of 6.5%. This is the best showing since the post-Covid rebound in 2022 (8.1%), UOB said in its recent report.

The manufacturing and services sectors continued to be the main drivers of growth, while external trade maintained its strong pace through 2024. The upswing in semiconductor sales since mid-2023 suggests that momentum is likely to continue further in the next 1-2 quarters.

The National Assembly has set a growth target of 6.5-7.0% for 2025, while Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently called for at least 8% expansion, supported by faster disbursement of public investment to boost infrastructure development and attract more investment.

Based on the disciplined approach to its fiscal stance and the way public expenditure has been disbursed so far, the 8% goal seems overly ambitious but there is still merit in hitting the target, UOB experts said.

The bank expects positive momentum from domestic drivers such as production, consumer spending, and visitor arrivals to contribute to the activities, especially in the first half of 2025.

However, uncertainty on trade outlook will be a major risk for Vietnam in the second half, with its rising dependence on exports, which grew to a record high of more than 400 billion USD in 2024, just about the size of Vietnam’s nominal GDP of 450 billion USD.

On a more positive note, UOB anticipates the US government will impose additional tariffs at a more measured and paced manner, thereby reducing pressure on major exporting countries to the US, including Vietnam.

Vietnam expects GDP per capita to hit $4,900 next year

Vietnam’s GDP per capita is set to rise by 5% to $4,900 next year if the country achieves economic growth of 7% this year, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has said.

Vietnam posts 6.8% GDP growth in the first 9 months

The GDP in the first 9 months of 2024 expanded by 6.82% compared to the same period in 2023. The GDP, based on 2010 constant prices, reached 4,472.22 trillion VND (around 180 billion USD).

PM orders extra efforts to reach yearly GDP growth of over 7%

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh requested ministries, sectors, and localities to strive their best to achieve the set growth rate of over 7% for 2024, while presiding over a regular Cabinet meeting connected online with the 63 provinces and centrally-run cities on October 7.

Vietnam posts 7.4% GDP growth in Q3

Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by about 7.4% in the third quarter and 6.82% during the first nine months of 2024 compared to the respective periods of last year, the General Statistics Office (GSO) reported on October 6. 

Government eyes 7% GDP growth in 2024

The government is striving to register an economic growth rate of 7% for the whole year, higher than the National Assembly (NA)’s target of 6-6.5%.

HSBC keeps Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6.5% for 2024, 2025

HSBC has maintained its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam at 6.5% for both 2024 and 2025 in its “Asian Economics Quarterly – Comin’ for a landing” report.